Boomer effect could put pressure on deficit
Posted: February 04, 2010, 11:37 AM
by David Pett
Economy, Market Call, Ian McGugan
For years, policymakers have been warning that things will be different when boomers start retiring in large numbers. You’ve probably heard the phrase so often that it’s lost all impact. But guess what? It’s no longer a matter of “when.” It’s a matter of now that the boomers are retiring in large numbers.
Stephen Gordon, a professor of economics at Laval, has the numbers (as well as a scary chart) on Worthwhile Canadian Initiative, the excellent blog on Canadian economics which he co-authors. His post shows that the working-age population as a percentage of the total population is beginning a sharp decline. Since 2005, the data have been at the extreme bad end of the 13 scenarios imagined by Statistics Canada.
Gordon figures the decline in the size of the labor force is going to cut per-capita GDP growth rates by about 0.4% a year. While Gordon doesn’t go into all the ramifications, it seems safe to assume that an aging population and slower economic growth will put pressure on the government’s deficit projections—not to mention Canada’s booming real estate market.
Posted: February 04, 2010, 11:37 AM
by David Pett
Economy, Market Call, Ian McGugan
For years, policymakers have been warning that things will be different when boomers start retiring in large numbers. You’ve probably heard the phrase so often that it’s lost all impact. But guess what? It’s no longer a matter of “when.” It’s a matter of now that the boomers are retiring in large numbers.
Stephen Gordon, a professor of economics at Laval, has the numbers (as well as a scary chart) on Worthwhile Canadian Initiative, the excellent blog on Canadian economics which he co-authors. His post shows that the working-age population as a percentage of the total population is beginning a sharp decline. Since 2005, the data have been at the extreme bad end of the 13 scenarios imagined by Statistics Canada.
Gordon figures the decline in the size of the labor force is going to cut per-capita GDP growth rates by about 0.4% a year. While Gordon doesn’t go into all the ramifications, it seems safe to assume that an aging population and slower economic growth will put pressure on the government’s deficit projections—not to mention Canada’s booming real estate market.
