YOU'RE HOT & YOU'RE COLD!

Hot Toronto, cold Vancouver have competing effects on Canadian housing market
By Sunny Freeman
CANADIAN PRESS May 15, 2012

TORONTO – The Canadian housing market gained momentum in April as strong sales in the Toronto offset weakness in Vancouver, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.

April seasonally adjusted home sales on CREA’s Multiple Listing Service gained 0.8 per cent compared with March.

On a year-over-year basis, the association said there were 49,480 homes sold in April, up 11.5 per cent from 44,370 a year ago, when sales slowed following a tightening of mortgage lending rules including the elimination of 35-year amortizations came into effect in March 2011.

Two of Canada’s largest markets are having opposite effects on the national average, with slowing sales and falling prices in Vancouver dragging, and soaring sales and prices in Toronto exerting upward pressure.

The average home price in Canada in April was up 0.9 per cent from a year ago at $375,810.

“It bears repeating that the national average price was skewed higher last spring by record level high-end home sales in Vancouver’s priciest neighbourhoods, and that a replay of this phenomenon was not expected this year,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist.

The average selling price in Vancouver was down 9.8 per cent compared with a year ago at $735,315, while the average price in Toronto was up 8.4 per cent at $517,556. April sales in Vancouver slid 13.2 per cent while Toronto sales picked up 14.5 per cent compared to a year ago.

“Trends in Vancouver and Toronto continue to diverge. These two housing markets have an obvious influence on national statistics and a high profile, but Canada is a big place,” said Wayne Moen, CREA President.

Excluding Toronto and Vancouver, the average price in Canada was up 3.1 per cent from a year ago.

Gains in Montreal, Winnipeg, Edmonton, as well as London and St. Thomas, Ont., also contributed to the increased sales, offsetting declines in Ottawa, Windsor-Essex, Quebec City, the Fraser Valley, and Vancouver.

Continued strength in the housing market, largely due to the staying power of low interest rates, has led some economists to warn the market is overvalued. That could make homeowners vulnerable to a downturn, especially those who have used low interest rates to borrow more than they could otherwise afford.

TD Bank estimates Canadian home prices are 10 to 15 per cent overvalued, with the excess most evident in Toronto and Vancouver, said TD economist Diana Petramala.

“With mortgage rates still at rock bottom through the early part of this year and job creation heating up through March and April, it’s not that surprising to see continued growth in Canadian home sales,” she said.

“Still, growth in home prices and sales will likely be limited as the overvaluation has led to a deterioration in affordability. Overall, we anticipate the Canadian housing market to remain relatively flat in the coming year with home prices to rise just another two per cent this year, following gains of seven per cent in each of the last two years.”

The number of newly listed homes pared back 0.2 per cent from March to April, which, combined with slightly higher sales resulted in a tighter national housing market, but remains firmly entrenched in balanced market territory,” CREA said in a release.

A total of 157,804 homes have traded hands so far this year, up 6.4 per cent from levels reported in the first four months of 2011.

That’s also about four per cent higher than both the five- and 10-year averages for sales during the first third of the year.

Sales on CREA’s Multiple Listing Service was either up or held steady in half of all local markets, with Toronto and Calgary posting the biggest monthly increases for the second consecutive month.

Toronto home sales in 2012 have been particularly strong, up 9.5 per cent from year ago levels at 31,639 homes sold so far this year. But sales in Vancouver, a market that was bustling with high-end home purchases last year, are down 19.9 per cent so far this year at 9,935 homes sold.

“While these two cities are garnering most of the attention, Calgary is quietly becoming a market to watch,” said BMO economist Robert Kavcic, adding that sales in the city jumped 30 per cent year-over-year in April.

“If oil prices remain high enough to continue supporting strong economic growth and migration flows, Calgary could again become Canada’s real estate hot spot in short order.”

ON THE RISE...NATIONALLY

Canada’s home sales back on the rise
Postmedia News
Mar 15, 2012

Following a rough start to 2012, home sales in Canada rebounded in February with a modest increase from the previous month.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) said Thursday that home sale rose by 1.4% between January and February, which helped recover roughly one-third of the 4.5% drop recorded the previous month.

Compared with the same reporting period the previous year, activity was 8.6% higher than February 2011. Over the first two months of 2012, some 61,772 homes were sold, which represents a 6.7% hike from the same period in 2011.

“The national rise in both sales activity and the number of newly listed homes beyond the normal seasonal increase provides clear evidence that Canadians are confident in housing market prospects,” CREA president Gary Morse said in a new release.

New home listings also jumped 1.9% in February, representing the highest level since May 2010. The association said a spike in new listings in Canada’s two busiest markets — Toronto and Montreal — helped counterbalance a decrease in listings in Vancouver, which is the country’s third-largest market.

CREA said that the balance between sales and new listings remains fairly equal.

On a year-over-year basis, average home sale prices were up fully two% in February 2012. The average price of all homes sold that month was $372,763.

The association said that the increase was partly due to a rise in high-end home sales in the Vancouver area, which was not anticipated. Single detached residences in the Toronto area also continue to fuel home gains.

RISING DEMAND IN ALBERTA

House prices expected to ease
Financial Post Staff
Mar 5, 2012

OTTAWA — Home resales are expected to rise by 0.3% this year in Canada, with low interest rates continuing to support the market, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Monday.

National sales are forecast to reach 458,800 units in 2012, up from 457,305 in the previous year. “Rising demand in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Nova Scotia, is expected to offset softer activity in British Columbia, Ontario, and New Brunswick,” CREA said.

In 2013, CREA said, sales are expected ease back to 457,200 units, with modest gains in all provinces except Ontario “as economic and job growth picks up later this year and builds into 2013,” it said.

Meanwhile, the national average price is likely to decline by 1.1% this year to $359,100, followed by a slight increase of 0.9% to $362,300 in 2013.

“Risks to the Canadian economic outlook remain elevated owing to the European sovereign debt quagmire, but the continuation of low interest rates is the silver lining,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist.

“So long as the European debt crisis is contained and a global economic recession avoided, low interest rates will support Canadian home sales and prices. Recent trends are reassuring, but interest rates remaining low for longer will doubtless keep the Canadian housing market under scrutiny for signs of overheating.”

A TOAST WITH 7UP

Calgary MLS sales in 2011 beat Canadian average
Up 7.0% from the previous year
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald January 17, 2012

Calgary MLS sales in 2011 bested the Canadian average for year-over-year growth, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

In releasing its year-end data on Monday, the association said sales of 22,466 units last year were up 7.0 per cent from the previous year while in Canada sales grew by 2.2 per cent to 456,749 transactions.

Sales across Alberta jumped by 6.9 per cent to 53,146 units.

However, Calgary and Alberta were behind the national average when it came to the annual price hike.

Calgary and Alberta registered 1.0 per cent year-over-year gains in the average MLS sale price to $402,851 and $355,808 respectively.

The national average was a 7.2 per cent hike to $363,346.

"The momentum in sales activity provides clear evidence that low interest rates continue to draw homebuyers to the housing market," Gary Morse, CREA's president, said in a statement. "While buyers have become increasingly cautious, the hand-off for sales activity going into the New Year suggests that Canada's housing market will continue to benefit from low interest rates in 2012, and continue making a significant contribution to Canadian economic activity."

Momentum for national sales activity and average price remains positive but is slowing, which suggests that the continuation of low interest rates is not causing the Canadian housing market to overheat, said Gregory Klump, CREA's chief economist.

"High-end home sales seem unlikely to spike again in the first quarter like they did at the beginning of 2011, so national average price momentum may wane further over the next few months," he said. "With interest rates widely expected to remain low throughout 2012, home ownership will remain affordable, and continue to support home sales activity."

Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist with BMO Capital Markets, said the Canadian housing market showed distinct signs of moderation in late 2011, with even some of the hottest of the hot cities simmering down.

LOCK IT OR FLOAT IT? THAT IS THE QUESTION.

Is it time to lock in mortgage?
Garry Marr
Financial Post · Aug. 31, 2011

The gap between short-term and long-term rates has shrunk enough that it might be time for anyone renewing a mortgage to consider locking in.

Moves last week by the major banks to reduce the discount on variable-rate mortgages comes as the discounts for long-term mortgages have gotten as steep as they have ever been.

"What seems to be happening is they are focusing their attention on fixed rates. We are starting to see some aggressive competition on four-and five-year products," says Gary Siegle, a mortgage broker and Invis Inc. regional manager in Calgary.

How aggressive? Try as much as 190 basis points. A five-year, fixed-rate mortgage with a posted rate of 5.39% is now being offered for 3.49%.

For whatever reason, the four-year, fixed-rate mortgages are being priced even more aggressively.

Mr. Siegle says he can lock consumers into a four-year, fixed mortgage for as low as 3.09%.

The discounting comes as variable-rate products, linked to prime, have become more expensive. Short-term money has become more expensive in the bond market, forcing banks to reduce discounts.

The banks traditionally move their prime rate with the Bank of Canada rate. With no flexibility there and existing customers getting huge discounts based on old deals, banks are forced to raise rates for new loans as short-term money gets more expensive.

The trend began in April when FirstLine Mortgages, a subsidiary of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce known for its low rates, cut its discount on variable rates.

Others banks were slow to follow, hoping to make money on volume. But refinancings have dried up under tougher mortgage rules and sales have slowed, creating the need to tighten profit margins on variable-rate products.

Today, the discount on a variable-rate mortgage is about 55 basis points off the prime rate of 3% - in other words, 2.45%. Compare that to 3.09% on a four-year mortgage and the premium to lock in is not that much.

"This gap is about as narrow as it goes," says CIBC deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal. "It reflects a flat yield curve, which makes it difficult to make money in this business."

Mr. Tal says variable-rate mortgages tend to be more attractive when there are inflation expectations not yet expressed in short-term rates. This time, he says, the bond market is depressed, anticipating recession, and that has shrunk spreads dramatically.

The one thing keeping people in short-term money is the sense that there is no urgency to move because the U.S. Federal Reserve Board has pledged not to raise rates for two years, which also effectively ties the hands of the Bank of Canada.

"We know the five-year rate is attractive, but we also know short-term rates are not raising," Mr. Tal says.

What does that mean on a practical, dollars-and-cents basis?

Let's use the Canadian Real Estate Association's 2011 average sale price forecast of about $360,000 and assume a 20% down payment and a $288,000 mortgage.

At 2.45%, your monthly mortgage payment based on a 25-year amortization would be $1,282.98. At 3.09%, your monthly payment rises to $1,376.28.

But even at the gap, you would pay about an extra $7,000 in interest to lock in over four years.

Ultimately, the $7,000 amounts to an insurance policy. You get payment certainty for four years, but at a price.

If rates climb 200 basis points on your variable-rate mortgage, it could cost you $22,000 more in interest over four years. The reality is that rates wouldn't jump at once and, therefore, increases would likely be gradual.

Moshe Milevsky, the York University finance professor who wrote the oft-quoted study that variable-rate mortgages do better than fixedrate mortgages 88% of the time, said if you start thinking about it like insurance, it comes down to your risk tolerance.

"There are people who pay a lot for protection on their portfolio; there are people who pay a lot for life insurance," Prof. Mr. Milevsky says. "If the premiums are low enough, you might say, 'Sure, I'll pay.' But if you have a tight budget, every basis point counts, and it might not be worth it."

To me, he still has the ultimate answer for the tough decision whether or not to lock in.

"I still don't get why more Canadians don't split their mortgage," Prof. Milevsky says. In other words, locking in half of the mortgage and floating with prime on the other half.

"When is a bank going to come to the realization Canadians hate making this choice?"

He's right. Even with rates this low and the gap between short-term and long-term rates this narrow, it is still a tough call.

Photo By: Accretion

OH, CANADA!

Housing market defies expectations

Garry Marr, Financial Post
Aug. 17, 2011

July proved to be a another strong month for Canadian home sales with the Canadian Real Estate Association now predicting 2011 will see an increase in sales as opposed to a previous forecast for a drop.

Actual sales last month were up 12.3% from a year ago while year-to-date sales are 1.6% lower than the same period for 2010.

Prices also continue to have some upward movement, al-beit some of the increase year over year being attributed to the introduction of the HST in British Columbia and Ontario, and tighter mortgage regulations in 2010.

The national average price for homes sold in July 2011 was $361,181 - the lowest level since January - but rep-resented a 9.3% increase from a year ago.

Greg Klump, chief economist at CREA, cautioned not to read too much into the average price statistics.

"Changes in the national average home price are open to being misinterpreted," Mr. Klump said. "They often signify changes in the mix of sales activity across and within local markets, rather than a rising or falling price trend for typical homes in a specific market."

However, the Ottawa-based group, which represents 100 boards across the country, says the scales have now tipped modestly in favour of 2011 outpacing 2010.

CREA is predicting 450,800 sales in 2011, just under a 1% increase from a year ago. The group had been forecasting a decline of 1%. Sales are expected to drop less than 1% in 2012.

Prices in Vancouver continue to affect the country, as they helped push CREA's forecast for the average sale price in 2011 to $363,500, a 7.2% increase from a year ago. This was also an increase from a previous forecast. Next year, prices are expected to be flat.

The group noted longtalked-about increases in interest rates have failed to materialize in the market.

"While there had been some talk of potential interest-rate increases, that hasn't happened," said Gary Morse, president of CREA. "In fact, rates have actually come down, and are now expected to remain low for the remainder of this year and into 2012."

Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at Bank of Montreal, said the housing market just seems to keep surprising everybody.

"In a world seemingly awash in negative economic surprises in 2011, one positive surprise has been the resiliency of Canada's housing market," said Mr. Porter, adding few analysts were predicting the kind of price increases the market has seen.

"Canadian housing remains surprisingly robust, thanks to still-low interest rates and solid job growth. While the recent financial market turmoil may temporarily weigh on activity, sales should ultimately find support from continued exceptionally low borrowing costs."

Phil Soper, chief executive of Royal LePage Real Estate Services, said his company's recent forecast was for a 2% decline in sales and 3% increase in price for 2011. He doesn't anticipate that changing.

"I think we're going to start to see it's not so much the strength of the market but the weakness last year. The market had run out of steam at this point last year," Mr. Soper said. "I think we are seeing a more normal curve to the market, with the exception of the Vancouver market."

THE SHORTEST MONTH SHOWS GROWTH

Calgary MLS sales rise in February
Prices up 3% from last year
By Mario Toneguzzi,
Calgary Herald March 15, 2011

CALGARY - Overall residential MLS sales and average prices rose in Calgary in February, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

In data released Tuesday, CREA said Calgary sales, which included all residential properties, were 1,917 for the month, up by 0.2 per cent from a year ago.

The average MLS sale price was $400,879, an increase of three per cent from February 2010.

Nationally, CREA said sales dropped by 5.9 per cent to 34,093 transactions but the average sale price rose 8.8 per cent year-over-year to $365,192.

"The average price has been skewed higher nationally and in British Columbia recently by a record number of multi-million dollar sales in a couple of areas in Greater Vancouver," said Gregory Klump, CREA's Chief Economist.

"When you take Vancouver out of the equation, the year-over-year increase in the national average price drops to 3.4 per cent. While that's still stronger than in the past six months or so, national average price gains may recede after tighter mortgage regulations take effect in March."

SAMPLE MENU OR FULL MENU?

TO LISTEN TO CHRISTINA'S FEEDBACK ON THIS DEAL, LISTEN TO CBC RADIO ON OCTOBER 2 @ 7:30a.m.

Landmark deal to transform how Canadians buy, sell real estate
Limiting agent services may save sellers thousands
By Tim Shufelt And Theresa Tedesco,
National Post, with files from Garry Marr

In a development that could drastically change the way Canadians buy and sell their homes, the real estate industry has reached a landmark agreement with federal competition authorities.

The legally binding deal will allow for home sellers to pay for only those services they want from their real estate agents. Previously, under the rules established by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), consumers had to opt for an entire slate of services, a practice the Competition Bureau deemed anti-competitive.

One of the most significant victories for the competition watchdog in the past decade, the settlement could save millions of Canadians thousands of dollars when they sell their homes. Instead of paying a full-service real estate agent up to 5% of the total sale value, a home seller can now pay a nominal fee for an agent to list the property on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). According to Derek Holt, an economist with the Bank of Nova Scotia, the difference could mean $15,000 in pocketed savings for the owner of an average-priced Canadian home.

The deal caps more than four years of feuding between the industry and the federal watchdog. In February, the Competition Bureau formally challenged CREA's practices, claiming they "limit consumer choice" and prevent real estate agents from offering lower cost services to customers.

At the heart of the complaint was the MLS, which is owned by CREA and is responsible for about 90% of home sales in the country. The real estate group fired back, accusing the commissioner of tarnishing the reputation of the profession with unfounded condemnations of its practices. But many industry observers said the public relations war was unwinnable for CREA and that its days of rejecting "a la carte" services were numbered.

"Since challenging CREA's rules, the Bureau's goal has always been to achieve a long-term solution that would strengthen competition in the residential real estate brokerage services market," Melanie Aitken, commissioner of competition, said in a release.

Ms. Aitken said the agreement, which has yet to be ratified, will allow real estate agents to "offer the variety of services and prices that meet the needs of consumers."

Meanwhile, CREA maintained that, despite the agreement, its rules did not "prevent or restrict a broad range of business models," the association said in a release. "In CREA's view, the consent agreement reflects this reality and would avoid unnecessary and expensive litigation proceedings."

Lawrence Dale, a Toronto-based real estate lawyer who sued CREA, told the Post the industry association buckled in signing the consent agreement.

"It's a complete capitulation and acknowledgment that what was being done in the past was improper and that they've now agreed in a legally binding document that they won't do it again," he said late yesterday.

Mr. Dale, who launched a discount brokerage RealtySellers, claimed he was forced out of business in 2006 as a result of new rules implemented by CREA.

"This is precisely what I've been fighting for for the last decade," he said. "That the consumer and real estate agent get to decide the framework of their relationship without having CREA and their local boards say certain arrangements are not appropriate for MLS."

The consent agreement is an important victory for the regulator because it provides the bureau with a legally binding settlement that can be used against CREA if the association fails to act on the agreed terms.

The bureau had previously rejected CREA's proposed rule changes, insisting that a consent agreement is necessary to ensure a permanent solution.

Don Lawby, chief executive of Century 21 Ltd. conceded the real estate industry "looked like we were tying to hold onto a monopoly" but argued that was not the case.

Photo By: Razvan Marescu

2 MONTHS OF A CHILL

Home resales cool for second straight month
Reuters
Published: Monday, March 15, 2010

TORONTO -- Sales of existing homes in Canada dipped for a second straight month in February, but remained high on a year-over-year basis, as the market may be moving into more balanced conditions, data showed on Monday.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) said a total of 42,799 homes changed hands last month, down 1.5% from January, as a large gain in sales in Toronto were offset by declines in Vancouver and other British Columbia housing markets.

The real estate group said the Winter Olympics, which were held in the host city of Vancouver and nearby areas, may have played a factor in lower sales in the province last month.

Unit sales in British Columbia were down 13.3% in February from January, compared with a 3.3% advance in Ontario.

Across Canada, sales rose 44% from the same month last year, a smaller gain in national activity from the previous three months. This was in line with economists' views that year-over-year comparisons are likely to shrink in coming months because the recovery of the housing market started in February 2009.

"Housing markets are becoming more balanced," said Gregory Klump," CREA's chief economist.

After a relatively short spell of low consumer confidence during the global financial crisis, Canadian homebuyers were quickly back in the market and have made the housing sector one of the cornerstones of the domestic economic recovery. The pace of the rebound has encouraged debate about a housing bubble.

But with rising supply -- new listings rose for a fifth straight month, up 2.4% -- it could take the steam out of the housing markets as the year goes on, said Mr. Klump.

Ultralow interest rates could further prompt home resales this spring before the arrival of new mortgage rules in April and changes to provincial sales tax regimes in British Columbia and Ontario, before cooling in the second half of the year.

"We should see the Canadian housing market move slowly back into a balanced-market position as higher mortgage rates and prices begin to temper demand," said Millan Mulraine, economics strategist at TD Securities.

CREA said the national average home price in February rose 18.2% from a year earlier to $335,655 (US$329,074)

Photo By: cjhart10